CME Suffers Suspicious "Cooling Issue" Just as Silver Hits ATH

What's up, guys? I'm nobody special and I'm supposed to be enjoying my day off today. And then, of course, the silver

today. And then, of course, the silver market broke. And so, I have got my

market broke. And so, I have got my liquid courage is here with me and I have got Idaho Armored Vaults CEO Bob Coleman is here with me today to try to make heads or tails of whatever the hell

happened in the market today. The story

we're being told is that there was a cooling issue at a data center.

Okay, that doesn't really hold water.

Um, also real quick, I'm just going to mention guys, I'm doing this from my laptop with a somewhat moody technical setup here. So, uh, if we have any

setup here. So, uh, if we have any technological issues, I appreciate your patience. And first, let's say hello to

patience. And first, let's say hello to Bob. Bob, welcome back to the channel.

Bob. Bob, welcome back to the channel.

Thank you for taking time on this Black Friday or Silver Friday, if you will, to talk to us. How you doing today, [laughter] Bob?

>> Good, good. How you doing? We're finally

doing a live podcast without the silver market getting slammed.

>> Yes, without the silver market getting slammed. I mean, it's certainly not a

slammed. I mean, it's certainly not a slam today, but we had something today.

Uh, I mean, I you you were awful cryptic in your messaging earlier and you're you're normally cool, calm, and collected when it comes to these big moves in the market and you have a very

logical explanation and you tend to be like, "No, no, it's nothing too, you know, uh, nefarious or anything going on." But I'm getting a very

on." But I'm getting a very different sense from you today. You seem

to think you see something else going on and it doesn't really line up with what they're feeding us about this data center issue. What is it that you saw

center issue. What is it that you saw that's got you so spooked about the metals market today?

>> Yeah, the data center issue to me is a non-event. Um it's not the reason for

non-event. Um it's not the reason for the you know for the sort of meltup I guess in in uh in the silver market. Uh

what I what I was told um and this started on Wednesday is that there was a big buyer coming into the market um uh buying millions of ounces worth of uh

silver futures contracts um on Wednesday. And you can actually see this

Wednesday. And you can actually see this with uh the open interest. It I mean it exploded up 7,000 contracts uh from Tuesday to Wednesday which is roughly

about you know five you know got about 5,000 ounces per contract 35 million ounces of uh uh worth of futures contracts which is about 1.9 billion in

notional value. So it was a sizable

notional value. So it was a sizable increase in open interest. Uh but was more interesting was that the options market uh lit up. Um you had the same

buyer buying just options um as far out as $80 calls uh up to I think June uh

2027. Um but buying very high strikes uh

2027. Um but buying very high strikes uh and from the from what I had been told a lot of this news started to permeate uh

after the close on Wednesday. Um, and

supposedly the buyer is Paul Tudtor Jones. So, it's not a central bank. It's

Jones. So, it's not a central bank. It's

not a, you know, man behind the cloth, so to speak. It's a very well-known name, uh, individual or trader, uh, coming into the market. Um, they came into the market, from what I understand,

back in April when the market swooned, uh, from 34 down to 28 1/2. uh they came into the market buying very sizable call positions then and that stopped the

market uh the downside in its tracks started to break back to the upside. Um

I I'm seeing the exact same thing all over again. And it's interesting because

over again. And it's interesting because I started really the last couple weeks I started talking about you I had a post called Ode to the Shorts which is uh I

guess um kind of a amusement to anyone who's trying to short this market especially under $50 an ounce. Um just

got absolutely lit up. U but that was going to be the fuel for the fire. uh

what's the market kind of have this consolidation and just did not have this breakdown I think a lot of people were looking for and caught a lot of people off guard. I think a lot of people uh

off guard. I think a lot of people uh traders got out of the market uh when we had that sort of double top. You had

guys come into the market trying to short the market down saying aha this is the double top. This is going to be you know we saw sort of the uh you know the massive amount of speculation in October

and the froth and the and the and the sentiment going through the through the roof. Um uh especially in later October.

roof. Um uh especially in later October.

Um and that basically may have called the the the top of the market. Um and

you had that subsequent double top in November and then you had the breakdown.

But yeah, as the market started the general market started to break down, you did not see the same thing happen with gold and silver. That's when I started posting these these charts of these inverted head and shoulders. Um,

you know, sometimes I have a sense of humor and I try to throw in some funny pictures in there, but you know, some of the stuff I do it because I it's somewhat of a I say cryptic type of a

message, but it's it's a way to try to explain the markets in a um uh in a method that um maybe is a little bit

lighter in feel, I guess you could say.

So, listen. Uh, I I don't see anybody in the comments mentioning anything. B in

and out. It's on I'm 99% sure the problem is on my side. So, we're going to limp through this one here. I don't

see anybody commenting in the live feed that there's audio issues. But, I did catch enough of that to get the gist of what you're saying.

really the idea that the big move in the price today at least was not at all related to this technical outage. So let

me rephrase my question Bob. Was in your opinion was the technical outage related to the move in price then in other words whatever you saw with the shorts and how

you know they were expecting this big move lower and it didn't happen. Did

they just switch the machines off and and did they just idea that it was a cooling issue? I mean, I know you

cooling issue? I mean, I know you obviously don't have firsthand knowledge, but do you suspect that's what happened?

>> Well, this event actually accentuated the short squeeze. Um, it did prevent it. Um um and so if you're if you're

it. Um um and so if you're if you're trying to maybe look at the market structure in a way um by shutting the not allowing the market to trade freely,

all of a sudden whoever's on the wrong side of the market is going to get fragged or burnt. Uh that's a given. But

if you're short and all of a sudden the market seizes up um and you had that big, you know, I think it I don't know if it was a real move or if they if it went down to 49 or so or 50 bucks. It

was like a big shot down. I don't know if that was if that was if those trades actually took place or not. Um but then it and then I think it corrected and

came back up. Um but and as the market kind of settled itself down and started to rise again that just basically put a magnifying glass on the on the entire

asset class. Um, it did. It was probably

asset class. Um, it did. It was probably the worst thing you could have if you were short the market and you're in the middle of a squeeze and you got this humongous money manager who's very well

known globally. Um, has a stellar

known globally. Um, has a stellar record, you know, getting if if he's the one getting into the market and and and saying, "Hey, listen. I think silver's about to rip." Um, you know, the last

thing you want to do is have an actual outage where you can't get out. Uh and

that so so to me that was somewhat of a situation that actually created even um more sort of panic uh if you're on the wrong side of the market.

So, sounds like maybe it could have been a coinc and if it wasn't a coincidence, it backfired and blew up in their face because it was just just made people

suspect things were even worse and caused almost a little bit of FOMO buying that in the market.

>> Yeah. And you have to remember this outage that took place was everything that was traded on the GlobeEx. So it,

you know, it may hit softs, energies, uh treasuries um uh currencies that type of thing. Anything that wasn't, uh, traded on the COMX direct market or I'm

sorry, comx, the CME direct market. Um,

so there was a lot of markets that were actually impacted by, uh, this outage.

Um, but you have to remember this outage actually happened at a time where it's a holiday. Uh, it's very, very low volume

holiday. Uh, it's very, very low volume to begin with anyway. Um, so yeah, if if this were to happen probably on any other day during a market week, um,

where there's, you know, constant activity, you'd probably have, um, you'd probably see more headlines, I guess, but because this happened, you know, right after Thanksgiving, the, you know,

of course, you know, but again, I'm not trying to make light of the event as the cause for silver. I think this move was building on Wednesday as more more and more market participants started to see

who was buying and what they were buying. Uh because when you start buying

buying. Uh because when you start buying $80 call options, you know, you're not looking for uh just a one or$2 dollar move in silver. You're looking for an

event. Um and I think that's what took

event. Um and I think that's what took the market by by shock today as maybe that news kind of started to uh filter through other participants and players

in the market.

Now, you've also been uh calling attention to some things recently around the SLV ETF failures to deliver and in particular around options expiration

where you know I don't want to misquote you but it really seemed like what you were describing was naked shorting of silver via the SLV ETF in order to

suppress the price movement around options expiration. Um, does that have

options expiration. Um, does that have something to do with this price action we saw today or is that just this other thing that's going on in the market that

maybe is a little suspicious?

>> Yeah, I I think the the um [clears throat] the SLV thing is has more to do with the option expiration week uh leading up to opt option

expiration uh which is the third Friday of each month uh and then the date after that expiration. What I noticed was a

that expiration. What I noticed was a very consistent pattern from really since June of this year where you'd have almost literally no share creation or even a declining share creation. Um

while short interest was actually or short sale activity was actually rapidly increasing during that week of option expiration. Um and then uh the following

expiration. Um and then uh the following Monday you had this massive increase of share issuance. um uh uh which which

share issuance. um uh uh which which would tell me u and you started to see short interest starting to rise in the middle of the month um and then decline

at the at the beginning of the month. So

there was this uh obviously we're you know a lot of the information I get is you know it's public information but it's reported twice a month one at the middle of the month at the beginning of

the month with a twoe lag. So, you know, you're kind of we all feel like we're mushrooms, I guess, a little bit with some of these uh statistics that we get.

But what I kind of gathered from it was um this amount of short activity and short interest that the especially in October, you saw this gigantic 30 million shares increase in short

interest. Uh you saw the borrowing rate

interest. Uh you saw the borrowing rate to 20% um to borrow uh the shares and so forth. There's literally nothing left to

forth. There's literally nothing left to borrow. Um, all these types of things

borrow. Um, all these types of things are telling me that I think it was a question of either suppression on uh SLV

share creation um or you know potentially uh suppression of SLV itself. I don't know if and that

itself. I don't know if and that obviously be being that it's the largest silver ETF in the in the um in the world that has overlapping effects on silver itself. So, but when you start to see

itself. So, but when you start to see some of these things and especially when it's not a onesie or twoosie, but it's a consistent pattern uh with um with with

these numbers that are not small, um you you have to kind of look at this with a little bit more of a magnifying glass, I think, and and a little bit more critical.

So, correct me if I if I'm wrong then.

May maybe the way this could work with the failures to deliver and the lack of creation of new shares. A typical gamma squeeze like we saw with GameStop or AMC

a few years ago as people pile into options typically the market makers buy the offsetting.

So people piling into options does move the underlying stock. Now, with

something like SLV, it looks like for whatever reason that buying of the underlying shares wasn't happening. There weren't a lot of shares

happening. There weren't a lot of shares available. And what would normally

available. And what would normally happen then is you would create new shares of the SLV and those SLV new shares. The ETF would then go buy the

shares. The ETF would then go buy the underlying metal, which would put upward pressure on the price of metal. And so

you would kind of get this feedback loop, which was kind of the goal of the silver squeeze back in 2021.

But what they're doing is they're preventing the gamma squeeze. Then if

they don't actually create the SLV shares until after those options expire, worthless, they're preventing that share creation silver buying from entering

into a feedback loop with the options market. And then they just make it right

market. And then they just make it right as soon as the options expire. It's it's

the delay allows them to absorb some of that buying pressure without moving the underlying metal. Am I did I just make

underlying metal. Am I did I just make that worse? Did what I say was that

that worse? Did what I say was that right or >> No, no, you're right. Basically, the ETF acted as a sponge to absorb capital flow

that would normally go to maybe force share creation, for example, with with authorized participants saying, "Hey, listen. we don't have any more

"Hey, listen. we don't have any more stuff you know as authorized participants you also could be the market makers uh so what happens is if if um all of a sudden silver is tight in

London for example and the cost of financing the cost of carry the cost of obtaining the metal has gone up well in order to absorb that flow of money

coming into into that fund the other avenue you have as a market maker under reg is you can make it short um and you can increase your short position to

quote unquote maintain an orderly market. Now, you have up to 30 30 or so

market. Now, you have up to 30 30 or so days to actually settle that uh with clearing firms. So, you may have these fails to deliver start popping up. And

that's exactly what happened. The fails

to deliver were just enormous. I mean,

we'd never seen this. Yeah. Yes. on the

uh there was one one or two day type spikes especially back in January of 2021 you when you had that silver squeeze sort of day but this was a a

basically cluster of days with a lot of shares failing to deliver um on a consistent basis. And so it um in

consistent basis. And so it um in essence what they were doing what it appears to be is that there was sort of this um suppression of share creation which would have put more pressure like

you said on the silver market which would have put pressure also on potential dealers that were short calls had to then um basically hedge as calls

are going up in price as well as you have to remember on a gamma squeeze when volatility rises uh on a call option and also So the intrinsic values going up at

the same time. That's what that gamma squeeze is. It's it increases the value

squeeze is. It's it increases the value of that call option. Um and the likelihood of those of calls becoming in the money which then could become exercise which then could be then would

force share creation in and of itself.

You just can't simply make it short uh when someone starts exercising calls all over the place. So this whole thing um creates this sort of suppression I guess you could say. Uh, and that's what I

started noticing and picking up on. And

this, you know, hopefully those posts, I'm not one that really is big on conspiracy theory and that type of thing. I tried to just read the markets

thing. I tried to just read the markets and let the markets tell me what's going on versus me trying to create some sort of narrative. Um, and but when you start

of narrative. Um, and but when you start seeing some of these numbers kind of staring you right in the face, you have to look at this and say, "Hey, this does

not look like a normal uh everyday functioning market.

Now guys, I I want to take a step back from that for a second and really let that set in because Bob, you've come on this channel a number of times and you've been highly critical of the

general narrative that the silver market is manipulated and you've been very vocally critical of some people in the space, some dealers who tend to tap into

those fears to try to move metal driving premiums higher. Uh, so when I hear that

premiums higher. Uh, so when I hear that from you, when I hear you saying the market, the tea leaves look like manipulation, I pay attention to that. That means more to me coming from you in this situation.

So, you know, give me your uh your forward looking into your crystal ball here.

Price suppression only works to a point, right? You can delay things, but the

right? You can delay things, but the pressures tend to build up and eventually there needs to be a relief.

>> That move we saw today, was that the relief valve? Was that suppression

relief valve? Was that suppression mechanism failing or are we just at the beginning here? I mean, I can't help but

beginning here? I mean, I can't help but think of that 50-year cup and handle pattern. I know everybody's watching 80

pattern. I know everybody's watching 80 to 2011 to today. So, are we seeing this a big breakout here now or do you think

we just maybe resume a little orderly march upward?

>> No, today's a big breakout. I mean,

anybody who's short just got lit up. Um,

you know, you're underwater at this point. uh you're underwater with open

point. uh you're underwater with open interest starting to rise on the futures markets. Um yeah and again well let me

markets. Um yeah and again well let me just preface um in terms of suppression and manipulation and so forth. This

happens to do with just SLV not the overall silver price per se. Yes SLV can have an impact on the silver price. Um

it's definitely um it's a tool that's that can be used to interact with the silver price itself. But you know the overall silver price itself you know you're talking the futures markets you

know spot market London market uh Shanghai you know India all these regional markets it's it's a much bigger theme to try and manipulate the overall

silver price but you know it can have these short short-term effects um that could you know that may have you know be able to shine a spotlight where there is

enough tension or stress uh on a particular market that would potentially maybe create, you know, a a drive or a move higher. You know, it's sort of like

move higher. You know, it's sort of like the idea when when, you know, Wall Street sees blood in the water, you know, that's when the sharks come out.

Um, and that's where if you're if you're the one that's bleeding in the water, Wall Street will take full advantage of you. Um well by by suppressing this

you. Um well by by suppressing this potential action here with uh you know the potential of nuke share creation and so forth in a in a time frame when you

had really tight supply um uh you know yes it could delay that effect but the market ultimately in my view always tends to win out. Um you like you said

you can only add so much artificial uh pressure on something until the bark just you know it's like building a dam and that water just continually uh rising behind the dam at some point it's

going to overflow and it's going to break the dam. Well, what I've been noticing the last couple weeks is, you know, you had when the markets took a spin to the downside, the general

markets, and gold and silver held very strong, silver was holding above 50 or trading around that 50 level. They were

showing a lot of strength there. And I

think a lot of shorts that may have come in and unfortunately we won't get this data because you know the commitment of traders reports will not really become

um uh up to date uh really until you know end of December early January. I

mean it they're only going to be reporting stuff that happened eight or six or eight weeks ago which doesn't help us any um until you know this government shutdown you know the CFTC

gets caught up with all the data. Um

that's actually bigger issue than the outage on the CME by the way. Um but but uh you trying to read these things trying to look at the open interest and

look at all this type of activity and you look at volatility ratios of uh of SLV and and and and GLD and you look at the volatility premium and so forth that

that's trading at and it's rising. All

that stuff is telling you that there's building pressure in the market um that that I think is is going to force this sort of meltup uh to ultimately happen.

Now the question is how fast does the meltup potentially happen? You know as as a as a investor in silver for example the last thing you want to see is this thing just go absolutely vertical

because then the question is the sustainability of the move. Um but yeah, but that's what we're all trying to understand, I think, as investors is you have, you know, the general markup at uh

or general uh market has been sort of in this meltup uh in 2025 and I think the metals are sort of uh um going along for the ride or maybe leading the ride per

se. Um and then I think the uh the

se. Um and then I think the uh the metals in themselves I think have gathered strength from the the uh Bitcoin and AI weakness uh that we saw

especially the last few weeks um and people saying hey listen maybe the alternative asset to own if and currency debasement isn't really digital maybe it is gold and silver and so you you have

this crossover of of new money coming into the space um at a time when yeah maybe short players are on a on a trading level saying, "Hey, listen, maybe this thing double topped." And you

and it's like watching two currents, you know, hit the same time um at different directions and it just causes this sort of u uh temporary or uh chaos in the markets where one of those currents is

going to be stronger than the other and it's going to take that other current for a ride.

>> You know, you're right to point out that strength that that silver and gold has shown. You know, we we had that big rip

shown. You know, we we had that big rip in September, October. We went close to 4,400 in gold. We went about $54 in silver and then we had the pullback that

I think a lot of people were expecting a pullback and we did get it. It took us down to about, you know, the high 40s is about it and then right back to 50 bucks and then held there while things like

tech stocks you pointed out also sold out or sold off pretty violently. Now,

Bitcoin has had a good day or two here.

Uh but silver has held up and gold has held up very well in the light of some classes that sold off. So that is encouraging and I couldn't help but have a Pavlovian response when you talked

about shorts getting stopped out and and getting clobbered in the market today.

So we'll take a minute here for the state of Kentucky.

That was a Yeah, didn't mind seeing that one so much. Been waiting for that for a few years now. Uh I I do want to get into some of the geography if if you have a second. Um, go ahead. I'm sorry I cut you off there. There's a little

delay.

>> Oh, that's our moment of silence, I guess.

>> Yes. Yes. Let's have another moment of silence for the Silver Shorts today, shall we? We barely had a chance to get

shall we? We barely had a chance to get to know them.

>> All right. And uh I also I I I would be remiss if I didn't mention uh some of the melon heads are are active here in the chats as well. We've got Armando and uh you can the angst reflected in this

comment. every pillar of trust in

comment. every pillar of trust in American life. I mean, I put out videos

American life. I mean, I put out videos over the last few weeks about pallet companies going bankrupt. I had a lot of fun with a portaotti company going bankrupt. Um, you know, this perception

bankrupt. Um, you know, this perception of rigged markets today didn't help. You know, when we're told a cooling center or data center cooling issue in Chicago takes down not

just silver, it took down oil, it took down everything options. I I I can understand a comment like this. And then

Armando also says, "This is what it looks like when society starts to unravel. A culture in decline and the

unravel. A culture in decline and the collapse." Um, Armando, that is a fine

collapse." Um, Armando, that is a fine bit of dooming right there, if I do say so myself. But, uh, you know what? The

so myself. But, uh, you know what? The

shiny is holding up pretty well. So,

it's the silver lining, if you will.

Thank you, Armando, for supporting the channel. The pasta man is here. He says,

channel. The pasta man is here. He says,

"We'll know things are bad when the Fed accepts I think he mean to say data center credits. The uh magic money

center credits. The uh magic money holding up the AI bubble in the repo market. I would like to exchange these

market. I would like to exchange these data center credits for Yeah, that's just as good as money, right? It's an

IOU, one hour of GPU rental that you can use to to run your large language model.

It's it's just as good as money if you're core weaver NVIDIA anyway. And

again, metal's holding up while the tech stock off. Uh, you were you were right

stock off. Uh, you were you were right to point that one out, Bob. Uh, Freckles

is saying, "Thank you for this for today's video." You are welcome,

today's video." You are welcome, Freckles. Ask me how my day day off is

Freckles. Ask me how my day day off is going, guys. Go ahead. How my day off.

going, guys. Go ahead. How my day off.

Bob, how is your day off? Are you

enjoying your day off, sir?

>> Oh, I never have a day off.

>> A day off? What's that? Right, Jim?

Thanks again, Freckles. Jim Ratari, he's been a melon head for 21 months. Says,

"Yay, $56 silver." Now Bob, let me ask you since he mentions a number here, Jaywari. I was looking at my the places

Jaywari. I was looking at my the places I usually get my quotes today like tradingviewing.com, yahoo finance, and the quotes I was getting were all over the place at the

same time. Were you seeing that today,

same time. Were you seeing that today, too? Like just some crazy prices quoted.

too? Like just some crazy prices quoted.

I saw over $57 on Trading View at one point. And then I looked over at investing.com and it said

for the same December contract.

>> Yeah, I don't know. Um I don't really some of those I don't look at. Um we

also have the roll going uh to um uh to March silver. So um you may some of

March silver. So um you may some of these sites may be posting uh March silver instead of December silver. uh

you can be getting that you know the the backwardation uh I think we it kind of closed in quite a bit today um uh on the December contract uh it's you know a lot

closer to par uh spot price uh relative to the December futures contract. So you

have some of that that's going on. Um

I mean I can tell you right now wholesaler feeds that I watch and everything um some of them were down today I spreads have widened. I mean,

this this when you see an impact like this, the first thing that typically happens is everybody widens spreads um because you you just don't know where

the market truly is uh or it's just so frantic or it's such a fast market that you have to protect yourself somehow.

So, I I I kind of understand that side of it. Um but yeah, I don't you know, t

of it. Um but yeah, I don't you know, t you know, some I don't know what the some of the feeds what their origination of of their price action was.

Okay, that contract role that makes sense. It may to some of the quotes and

sense. It may to some of the quotes and why why I was getting some wildly different numbers. That that makes

different numbers. That that makes sense. Um I've also got Citrus Mo says

sense. Um I've also got Citrus Mo says the conspiracy is they knew Jack was off so they pulled some malarkey. Yep. It

was all it was all about not letting me have a day off. That's why they took down oil trades and and stock options and futures and everything. Yep. It was

all me. I apologize on behalf of uh everybody in the world, you know, or sorry everybody. It was it was me trying

sorry everybody. It was it was me trying to take a day off. I ruined it for everybody. This is why we can't have

everybody. This is why we can't have Thanks Citrus.

And we got a super sticker from Freckles, which uh Freckles, I don't have my iPad off to the right here like I normally have showing me what the super stickers are, but I just have to say thank you very much for supporting

the channel. Uh whoa, Jake's custom

the channel. Uh whoa, Jake's custom part. Thank you, Jake, for the orange

part. Thank you, Jake, for the orange one. He says, "Thanks NSF and the mods

one. He says, "Thanks NSF and the mods and Bob while we're at it." Thank you so much, guys. And yeah, my mods, they were

much, guys. And yeah, my mods, they were supposed to have the day off today, too.

But they are here keeping things neat and tidy in the chat. Thank you guys very much. And you are most welcome,

very much. And you are most welcome, Jake. M&J gifted 20 nobody special

Jake. M&J gifted 20 nobody special finance memberships. The Melon Patch is

finance memberships. The Melon Patch is growing once again. Thank you so much, MJ, for everything you do for the channel. Just a reminder, guys, you

channel. Just a reminder, guys, you melon head members, you get a free super chat every month. Use that. We will read and respond to your questions live on the air. and my man four P's, he's back

the air. and my man four P's, he's back again. Every time I try to say that

again. Every time I try to say that name, I end up spitting at my camera.

So, I'm just gonna say four Ps. He

gifted five more memberships. Thank you

very much, guys, for supporting the channel. I appreciate all those super

channel. I appreciate all those super chats. Now, Bob, there's one more thing

chats. Now, Bob, there's one more thing I wanted to ask you about, and it's something that I couldn't really I can't timing of it. It was two days ago, so you know, this is late Wednesday heading

into Thanksgiving dinner uh or heading into Thanksgiving Day. There's a story about tight inventory in China. There

was an article in Bloomberg that the inventory in China was lower than it's ever been. East futures market had gone

ever been. East futures market had gone into backwardation. And that the reason

into backwardation. And that the reason driving this was that so much metal had left China, left Shanghai and headed to bail out the shortage in London. And I

know a lot of metal left New York and headed to London toate the shortage. I

remember watching the cost to borrow SLV shares and the cost to lease silver rates were. So the metal came from New

rates were. So the metal came from New York and Shanghai into London to relieve the shortage. Now it looks like we've

the shortage. Now it looks like we've got shortages developing in Shanghai.

Is it possible that these regional dysfunctions in the market may be contributing to this blowout that we saw in New York? I mean are are could we have Chinese traders trying to source

metal on the comics now because they're getting it in Shanghai? What role do you see that playing?

Yeah, I I think um China even mentioned that they were going to put in some export controls. I think um uh trying to

export controls. I think um uh trying to I think starting in January 2026 um metal um or silver exporting out and and

my guess is that the the the levels got so low that you know they probably saw some degree of uh need to to try to maintain an orderly orderly market on

their end. Um but I you know that's one

their end. Um but I you know that's one of the reasons why when you this this market is a global story it you know when you start to see big-time money managers coming into the space and and

these guys are all reading the same stuff. we all read, you know, X has been

stuff. we all read, you know, X has been a great atmosphere for for a lot of data to be dumped. Um, you know, some good, some bad, but to try and parcel through this, understand it and so forth. You

know, that that story with China was was brought forth um uh by uh someone who follows that market very very closely uh a couple weeks ago. So, it wasn't it

wasn't really new news there. But, you

know, when you have players that watch this stuff and they start seeing the developments, like you had said, you start to see stresses develop regionally, um, even though maybe SLV

had some really odd hanky panky stuff going on with it. The problem is that metal that was being used potentially to

kind of cool the stress down in that regional location now developed fires in where that metal came from, so to speak.

So, um, when you're watching all this type of stuff, it these pl we're all watching this, you know, this idea of, okay, what's how's this market forming?

What's the structure going to look like?

What's going to start moving it either to the upside or downside? And when you start seeing, you know, the last couple weeks when the market started taking a nose dive, the general markets and you

starting to see the selling pressure come out of nowhere um uh with um well, I shouldn't say nowhere, but starting to really pick up in the retail space here in the US and you started to see

wholesalers um bids were collapsing. Uh

offers were collapsing on precious metal products. I mean, right now the the bids

products. I mean, right now the the bids and offers on a lot of these products are the lowest that they've been all year. Uh, in fact, even though the

year. Uh, in fact, even though the metals um are are at back at all all or silver's at all-time high, the higher these prices go, people are selling into

it. They're seeing the volatility. They

it. They're seeing the volatility. They

get scared of the volatility. They're

thinking, "Okay, the thing's going to pull back." And so you and you have

pull back." And so you and you have minimum required distributions coming in uh for IAS that's creating more selling.

So, so trying to parse all this stuff out, you can't really read the retail market per se, except maybe if they've gotten scared uh during the market

correction and that sentiment really dropped out of bed, that may have been a good setup from a contrarian standpoint.

But you know, that's just part of the story. I

mean you know India and Chinese buying which has been you know enormous this year um if you're now very low on inventory you know that could be a

center which premiums will probably start perking back up um relative to uh prices over in London or say the United States. So you may see this demand for

States. So you may see this demand for metal now. So start moving uh eastward

metal now. So start moving uh eastward again um from you know maybe moving uh out of China into potentially India or Japan or some of these other places that

were that were or were London that was you know willing to pay higher prices than what China was offering. Um so so this is why you you have to do a lot of

reading. It's hard to get stuck in um

reading. It's hard to get stuck in um this mindset of manipulation because the market is constantly breathing. It's

constantly moving. You're you're just trying to analyze all the data um that's being thrown at us from every direction.

This is going on while the paper market is going berserk. We're, you know, you mentioned some retail products there.

We're still seeing premiums as low as I've ever seen them in in my stacking lifetime. I just I bought a tube of

lifetime. I just I bought a tube of American Silver Eagles for $2.35 over spot per uh just that was Wednesday

morning. I bought those uh spot or junk

morning. I bought those uh spot or junk silver the 90% constitutional four and a half even 5% under spot because of the dysfunction I guess that's still going

on with the refiners. Do you see any relief in sight with this refining situation and the the backup in the market for 90% junk silver or do you think these these low premiums are here

to stay for a while?

>> Yeah, there's no relief right now because refiners want it's much easier for them to take in 39 fine metal rather than junk which is 90%

fine. um it's just too costly uh and too

fine. um it's just too costly uh and too time consuming to deal with 90% silver when you have so much 39 fine silver coming back. And you have to remember

coming back. And you have to remember refiners will use that 39 fine silver to sort of um uh uh

melt up or I'm sorry have a a higher degree of finance finness when they melt like ore and and and and mine mining material. uh they'll use the 39 to kind

material. uh they'll use the 39 to kind of average that that consistency upward whereas 90% is basically hey this is just like mining ore and you got to have to you know go through the whole steps

and processes of of taking out all the impurities. Um so it um 39 is certainly

impurities. Um so it um 39 is certainly much more viable at at the moment. Um

and that's obviously forcing prices. I

mean we're I think around $2 under spot for for junk silver that we're selling to clients. Um uh you know, but on the

to clients. Um uh you know, but on the flip side, you know, the bids are not great. Uh you know, you're talking $5

great. Uh you know, you're talking $5 under spot. Um uh five five five dollars

under spot. Um uh five five five dollars under spot for for for junk silver at the moment. Um and and and and I know

the moment. Um and and and and I know from what I've heard a lot of refin or wholesalers have actually stopped buying junk uh or maybe just started picking

back up buying, but you know they're at 10 15% discounts um minimum to to buy the stuff back. that's not leaving a great taste in people's mouths that have

bought junk silver over the years that you know they see the silver price going up and now all of a sudden either they have to take a a bath selling it or they actually can't even sell it to a dealer

because the dealer can't unwind it to a wholesaler or to a refiner. So you you you know maybe at some point that that premium will start to dissipate um uh

and normalize and get back closer to spot. But like we saw in 1980 when

spot. But like we saw in 1980 when silver was around $50 an ounce or 49 back in 1980. I think that from what I understood the refiners were only paying

$38 over spot for for junk silver at the time. And that that was mainly because

time. And that that was mainly because of the processing time and lead times it took um to you know hold on to that silver until they could actually melt it down. And so there was a that that time

down. And so there was a that that time delay you know goes into the fact or factor of carrying costs.

>> So let me ask you something Bob. I've

been buying junk silver hand over fist these last couple of weeks because remember just a few years ago when the stuff was going for seven eight dollars over spot and now I see it for two and a

half under uh and I'm on a longterm horizon here. I'm not in a in a hurry to

horizon here. I'm not in a in a hurry to sell this next week or anything and I I I believe eventually the refinery market will stabilize and this stuff will go back to a more respectable price. Is it

going to stay this way forever or am I going to be left holding a bag because the refiners never start buying this stuff or is this just something that needs to work its way through?

>> You definitely need to work its way through. I mean at some point the price

through. I mean at some point the price goes up high enough um you know the industry you know the problem is we only have so many refiners in this country.

Um uh you if industry needs the product um they'll find a way to get the stuff refined and put into a a um format that

whether it's sponge or bars or whatever it may be uh into a product that industry will demand and and use as uh as their supply. Um, but you know, you

have to remember junk silver. Um,

there's a lot of it out there. Uh, and

especially this is the asset probably the the largest asset class that has been accumulated over the years. Uh, and

it's very maybe you could say um more demographic in nature. You know, the older generation kind of remembers, you know, potentially using silver and coinage. Um uh and the younger

coinage. Um uh and the younger generation may like just simply the the 395 fine uh you know coins or or or rounds uh or bars because yeah maybe

it's just simpler or easier to understand versus hey this you know pre64 or pre65 stuff half of the heads are worn off on I can't tell if it you

know what data even is. Um so so it it may be more of a preferred product of um the older generation versus the newer generation saying hey listen I just want

silver um and I want something that you know I can put in little tubes or or you know rather than this junk bag. Yeah.

It's those types of things that you can't account for. Um, but at the end of the day, you know, the the junk silver, um, constitutional money type of thing.

Um, it's only getting older, so it's it's it's going to become more of a collector's item, I think, uh, more than anything.

>> Yeah, they're not making any more of it, that's for sure. And, uh, well, it's cheap right now. And, you know, back in 2021 when the market was going crazy, I bought the generic stuff cuz that was cheap. Um, now I find myself buying

cheap. Um, now I find myself buying things I never thought I'd buy, like American Silver Eagles 250 over spot and and junk for almost 5% backup spot. So,

um, it it's been pretty interesting to watch the dislocation in the market. And

again, while all this is going on, the paper market is just going absolutely berserk like a lot of us were hoping was going to happen back in 2021 and we didn't get to see that. So, it's a little bit of delayed gratification, if

you will, there.

And I just want to say thank you very much, Mr. RB Trash, who's also jumping in there, says, "Is it time to try to get the final super chat in yet?" I I do think we're coming about that. Every now

and then, these guys, everybody tries to get the last word in in the super chats.

And well, I'm not trying to stop them.

Let's put it that way. Thank you,

Arbitr. And we've also got, man, I don't have my glasses on today. Sam. Sam, I

can't say the rest. Sam, I'm sorry because I'm half blind without my shades on. He says, "Thanks for the awesome

on. He says, "Thanks for the awesome comment content." You are most welcome,

comment content." You are most welcome, Sam. Thank you for supporting the

Sam. Thank you for supporting the channel. I appreciate that very much.

channel. I appreciate that very much.

And uh also Bob, I I want to say thank you very much for taking the time to us today and make sense of that. Um I

apologize. We had some technical issues when we first started up here, but we got through them. And uh well, it's been one heck of a day. I guess I'll give you the final word, Bob, as we wrap up here.

Where do you think we're going? And uh I don't know, any any parting words of wisdom for trying to make heads or tails of it?

Yeah, I one of the advantages of owning physical, I think, is not having to be, you know, in front of a computer screen with your finger on the on the mouse button ready to hit the sell button at

any any time of um uh volatility. And I

think, you know, this is a testament, I think, to a lot of people that own physical is that as a long-term investor, you're really playing the trend of the market versus the nuances

of just the day-to-day movements. And I

think uh especially a lot of people that got caught up in sort of the the mantra of double top and sell a double top, you know, those are trading uh uh aspects of

the market. It's not that's not the

the market. It's not that's not the trend per se. Um so you can catch these moves. Uh but just trying to distinguish

moves. Uh but just trying to distinguish the two, you know, if you're playing options or futures or or ETFs, you know, those are shorter term movement type

types of things. um versus you know obviously holding metal you know again running a hedge fund that I do um uh the metal that we have is all physical held

outside the financial system you know the idea of owning that physical is not to be shaken out it's it's also to say listen if things do go arai you know

this is basically the insurance policy um against counterparty and systemic risk and and that's what we see sort of building here uh in the markets as

meltup kind of continues. It's this, you know, I think the metals kind of are this expression of disenchantment uh and and sort of distrust in the system. And

I think um uh you know, not knowing, hey, whether things are going to be at fat premiums or fat discounts, the spot, that's what the you know, that's the wholesale market, that's the retail

market. We have no control over that per

market. We have no control over that per se. Um, but if the price continues to

se. Um, but if the price continues to rise, um, you know, that is really just a symptom of, hey, things are still wrong out there. They're not getting any better. Um, uh, and and that's where you

better. Um, uh, and and that's where you tend to make more money is following that trend versus, you know, all the, uh, the small nuances of of all these small trades.

>> Words of wisdom as always, Bob, and, you know, I agree with that sentiment. I

tend to look at my stack as a savings account or an insurance policy. As you

mentioned, if you want to get creative, there's things you can do with the premiums and the gold to silver ratio, moving between the various products if you want to try to generate a little yield with it. But that's more of a

hobby versus an investment and a get-rich quick scheme. The idea is to get yourself out of the damn casino and into something that, like you mentioned, you don't have to sit there glued to a ticker with your blood pressure spiking

every time it goes in the wrong direction. So, Bob, once again, I want

direction. So, Bob, once again, I want to say thank you very much for your time, especially on Black Friday. Um,

real quick, I want to say thank you to Emman who says, "Say hello to your brother for us." Um, husband, he's right next to me here snoring up a storm because he had a heck of a day. I don't

know if that came through in the audio or not, but I was on mute for most of that time because of that. So, hi. Hi,

David from M&J and from all the melon heads out there. Thanks again, Bob. Uh,

really interesting talk as always. I

appreciate your time and everybody else.

Until next time, live small and dream big.