THE SHIFT IN THE LIQUIDITY CYCLE AND ITS IMPACT ON BITCOIN/GOLD

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the live stream. I'm going to give it a

live stream. I'm going to give it a moment to allow everyone to join and make sure everyone is able to interact in the chat and we are going to get started.

The main topic for today's live stream is where we are in the liquidity cycle. And

I could not think of a better time to really lock in on where we are with liquidity because the implications are pretty drastic with where we're at with

Bitcoin, where we're at with equities, how volatility has been moving around.

And so the focus of today is where we're at with liquidity overall. And so if you guys are watching this, wherever it is, if you guys can reshare it, retweet it,

reshare it on YouTube, throw something in the comment section so that I'm aware that you guys are here. And then you guys can always put in questions in the comment section. At the end of this, I

comment section. At the end of this, I will go through uh all the questions and kind of break down my views on everything. And then I'll also have,

everything. And then I'll also have, especially if you are a long-term Bitcoin holder, gold holder, or you're kind of thinking about things from a long-term perspective for risk assets,

I'm going to have a very interesting kind of breakdown at the end that you're going to want to watch. So, stick around for that as well. So, the

one second, let me just make sure this is up and running.

Okay, we are good to go. So, the place that I want to start is going through the framework that I use for the cycle

of liquidity that we're in. And I'm

going to go through a bunch of charts explaining that. And I'm going to switch

explaining that. And I'm going to switch over to Trading View and go through some other charts to really frame

this idea. And the place that I want to

this idea. And the place that I want to start is that the greatest hindrances for success in markets is lowquality

ideas and limiting beliefs, not access to capital. And why? Because markets are

to capital. And why? Because markets are about the future expectations of ideas and beliefs. I think a lot of times

and beliefs. I think a lot of times people think or feel that if they only had a little bit more capital, if they just had a little bit more access, then

they would be able to be successful in markets, in life, whatever it might be.

And you know it's very interesting because the more I build models and knowledge around all of the different changes that we are seeing in macro the

more that I realize how capital in itself in today's world given how much liquidity there is in the world how much financialization there is capital has become commoditized

and what that means is that on an institutional level individual level on a kind of crowd crowdfunding basis, people can always get capital for good

ideas, right? It wasn't like that in the

ideas, right? It wasn't like that in the past. You a lot of times had to do a lot

past. You a lot of times had to do a lot more work just to be able to get capital and sometimes you'd have good ideas that never got funded. But in today's world, even if you have capital, it doesn't

mean you're going to have the ability to get onto the cap table of some of these really exceptional companies. You know,

I was just listening to a podcast by Naval Ravi Kant, and one of the things that he was talking about that I found very interesting was he was saying that, you know, just because you're a VC and

you have a ton of capital doesn't mean you're going to get on the cap table of the company that I'm building or raising money for because you have to add a lot more than just capital. And you know, I

think that is just such an instrumental point. And every single person, it

point. And every single person, it doesn't matter how much money you have or where you're at, relative to the opportunities that you have that you're trying to to figure out, you're going to

have a certain amount of capital and knowledge and time to be able to deploy toward that opportunity. and risk assets

whether it's in equity land or whether it's in duration risk in bonds they are fundamentally reflecting

expectations about the future and so you know the most important thing is understanding that you know if you look at any of the old interviews by Stan Rucket Miller you'll see that he was actually you know he had someone come to

him and just said hey I'll pay you $10,000 a month just to like speak to me and tell me what you think about the market. And he just said, "Oh, okay. I

market. And he just said, "Oh, okay. I

guess I'll do that." And you know, he ended up getting paid more than the fund he was managing and the money that he was managing at the time when he was kind of starting out. And that just goes to show you that even, you know, back

in, you know, kind of the time when he started, you know, people always care about what you think if you have a clear

view of the world. And so the main idea that I want to talk about for liquidity, if we take this idea of, you know, we want to have a very clear picture of ideas and we want to connect it to

liquidity. Money isn't just a physical

liquidity. Money isn't just a physical thing you have. It's a bunch of promises between people and institutions that

they make with each other. And what you will begin to see is that liquidity is really not that complicated to understand, especially intuitively. And

then if you require a very high barrier of analysis and a very high barrier of explanation for views on liquidity, then things will begin to make a lot more

sense. The problem is that when we begin

sense. The problem is that when we begin to pull back the rigor that we have in understanding markets or liquidity or wherever that might be and then the

result is you begin to have massive draw downs and assets that you're on the wrong side of. You're not able to understand where we are in the cycle.

And especially in today's world, I'm going to go over this in a little bit.

with the level of valuations that we have in the S&P 500, liquidity is one of the most important factors that you can understand because it has driven all of

the valuation expansion. Earnings

haven't driven the move up. It's all

been valuation expansion. And so when you think about money as not a physical thing, it's not just dollars, it's not just one currency,

but it's understanding how a dollar or an asset represents the relationship between two agents or people and how

this kind of idea of the good times start when everyone trusts the promises of other people and someone says, "Hey, I am going to give you, you know, a

million dollars and you just pay me $10,000, you know, a month or a year or whatever that might be to be able to use that money and then you have to pay it back. They say, "Okay, cool." Right? But

back. They say, "Okay, cool." Right? But

as you guys know, you know, in, you know, this is this is one of the things that markets is so connected to real life. Everyone knows that when you have

life. Everyone knows that when you have a relationship with someone or a familial connection with someone or you're in a family with someone, when someone breaks trust between someone

else, people are very slow to go and initiate and reestablish a relationship with someone. Even if it begins to get

with someone. Even if it begins to get back there, it takes time. And the same thing happens in markets when you have

these changes in expectations. you have

regime shifts, right? And so how those good times end and suddenly disappear is directly linked with the ideas that

liquidity prices in the future. And so

why and when people get scared, they move their money into the safest, simplest things that don't rely on anyone else keeping a promise. And

again, things like gold or, you know, if you have things like Bitcoin or other assets relative to whatever that might be, right? And we're going to break

be, right? And we're going to break those down in this session. But here's

the problem. People think they have a liquidity view, but what they actually have is a collection of narratives, emotions, and untested assumptions.

Liquidity is not a mood in markets. You

know, I think this, you know, has really become more popular that people think liquidity is simply the fact that stocks go up. Liquidity in itself is not a

go up. Liquidity in itself is not a narrative or a move. It is the transmission mechanism between money and the real world. And if your ideas are not quantified, so if I have a view of

liquidity and I don't connect that to goods, services, and assets, then you don't have a liquidity framework. You

just have noise. And so that's the problem that we have in today's world is that you have this entire social media

and just traditional media competing for your attention because the way that they make money is via attention.

But that doesn't necessarily mean they're making money by making your life better. Right? It's kind of the same

better. Right? It's kind of the same thing where a lot of people today are talking about colleges and how oh well colleges should have a stake in your future so that they don't give you a garbage degree. Right? If you could

garbage degree. Right? If you could think about if the there was some type of repercussion for different types of media businesses that actually had an

impact on people's lives for better or for worse and you actually injected some downside. they'd probably change the way

downside. they'd probably change the way that they were talking to people and they would probably have a different stance toward helping people and it wouldn't just be about attention and

clicks. And so the sign of a highquality

clicks. And so the sign of a highquality idea is two points and then we'll connect this to liquidity. Ideas become

real only when they're denominated in reality. So you can't have a meaningful

reality. So you can't have a meaningful view of money without tracing how that money prices the economy. So the cost of goods, the return on assets, the

marginal decision of firms and households, money is only relevant through what it settles, not an abstract concept. You know, a lot of people,

concept. You know, a lot of people, especially in today's world, like I've said, they'll talk about money or dollar devaluation or this or that or whatever it might be, but then when you ask them, okay, can we connect this to maybe my

life or connect it to what are we seeing in the market right now? Or can we connect it to the inflation basket or whatever that might be? then it begins to break down. They say like, "Oh, it's just obvious. You should just know it if

just obvious. You should just know it if you, you know, kind of just look out there, right?" And, you know, we need to

there, right?" And, you know, we need to say, "Hold up a second. If we actually want to operate with a view of the world, in order to benefit from the

changes that take place, you have to quantify your ideas and your actions because that is what the basis of an

operations is. To actually monetize your

operations is. To actually monetize your view of the world, you know, no company just goes out there and just throws ideas and hopes for the best. they

actually have to have an operations department to execute on it and monetize their view of the world. And so that's number one, ideas become real only when they're connected and denominated in

reality. And then number two, if your

reality. And then number two, if your ideas aren't quantified, you don't have ideas. And so a liquidity framework

ideas. And so a liquidity framework requires attribution analysis across duration risk, credit risk, and the pricing of real economic activity.

Without quantifying this chain, you're not analyzing liquidity at all. You're

projecting stories on your P&L.

And you'll know that if people are just throwing up random charts of the Fed balance sheet, M2, whatever it might be, and not explaining, okay, let me let me

walk you through why is it that the Fed balance sheet has been falling for a couple years, but Bitcoin has gone up.

Why is that exactly? And then why does it sometimes work the other way around?

Right? And so explaining and quantifying your ideas and beginning to walk through the difficult process of understanding all the intricacies of the system that

we're in. That is the key to be able to

we're in. That is the key to be able to benefit and align yourself with the macro regime that we're in. Simple

questions like what's the difference between liquidity in public markets and inflation in the economy? I mean that's a huge question and the reason that

matters is that if you have exposure which all of us do whether you're not long or you're long the S&P

500 or equities or if you have expenses in life all of us have expenses in life then you need to know how those changes

are impacting you and so you can see that in white you have the Russell and or excuse Excuse me. In white you have CPI which is just inflation in the real

economy. And then in blue you have the

economy. And then in blue you have the valuations so price to sales ratio of the Russell 2000 index. And one of the key things is the relationship between

valuations and also the relationship between valuations and inflation because those are connected but the entire question is how exactly are they

connected? And what we have seen more

connected? And what we have seen more recently is inflation being this little bit of a tighter range but ticking up a little

bit as valuations are expanding and we have a really aggressive stance in where valuations are on a broad picture basis.

The other question is just very simple that you would actually need to understand if you want to understand liquidity is does the yield curve connect to liquidity and is it about inflation or recession or what is it

what does it mean exactly? Does

recession happen when it inverts? Does

recession happen when it steepens? Like

what what is the dynamic there? I mean

those are just two basic questions that you know I've spent a lot of time you know building a lot of models around and spending time saying okay why would a

yield curve steepen or flatten why would it do it in a recessionary environment versus an inflationary environment and begin to walk through those different

scenarios and so what I want to do is connect that to really all of the models that I'm running every single day and if you've been on the website, you know

that all of the different models I run, you know, capital flows exists because most investors struggle not because they got the wrong stock pick, but because their positioning is out of sync with

the macro regime. And so capital flows exists to keep you on the right side of the macro regime. Because if you get those big picture things right, you're going to be able to make better decisions down the chain. You know, I

remember this interview once with uh with Dra Miller and he just says, you know, I try not to worry about all the small things. I try to just get the big

small things. I try to just get the big things right because if you get the big things right, you can be wrong in a lot of the small things. Right. And that is

a perfect illustration of why it is so critical to get the macro regime right.

And so capital flows is all about mapping all of those changes on a top- down basis between rates, credit, and equities. And the goal is simple so that

equities. And the goal is simple so that your trading and investing are in sync with the macro regime instead of fighting it. And so the key here is all

fighting it. And so the key here is all right, how do we connect this to where we are with liquidity right now? On the

Substack, I always lay out kind of a comprehensive view. I've laid out a

comprehensive view. I've laid out a bunch of primers and everything like that. And when you think about liquidity

that. And when you think about liquidity and where we are in the liquidity cycle, macro liquidity is made up of two things. The price of money set through

things. The price of money set through interest rates and then the quantity of money supplied through various channels that inject or withdraw liquidity from the system. On the left hand side you

the system. On the left hand side you can see the breakdown okay of all of the changes or attribution or dynamics around interest rates that you would

need to have a very clear understanding of interest rates where you have policy rates that determine the marginal cost of money forward expectations embedded in the curve so for example where's Fed

funds right now how is the forward curve pricing that we're going through some of that with the December cut right now and then real rates so where is the Fed relative to inflation, right? Are they

above or below inflation? Right? And

then you have term structure, which is the incentive to hold cash versus duration, right? So, you have to

duration, right? So, you have to remember that I can put my money in a money market fund or I can put it in long-term bonds. Which one's better? And

long-term bonds. Which one's better? And

then obviously you have funding costs in the money market that determine leverage capacity. That's on the interest rate

capacity. That's on the interest rate side. And obviously, you're going to

side. And obviously, you're going to have a connection between interest rates and the quantity of money. But on the quantity of money side, there are some key differences and we're going to go through some charts on it. Tre you have

the Treasury spending that injects cash into the private sector. You have

Treasury issuance that withdraws or adds collateral and shifts cash balances. You

have obviously the Federal Reserves balance sheet. You have the level of

balance sheet. You have the level of reserves in the system. You have banking in the system that has credit creation through loans and deposits. And you have money market fund flows. The key one is

foreign sector flows through the current account recycling F and FX reserve management. That is the largest driver

management. That is the largest driver in my view of liquidity right now which is crossber liquidity and I still you know my view has been over the last

couple you know couple months especially and then I would say you know probably year now is that everyone is so laser focused on the Fed that they have

totally missed all of the crossber flows that are taking place into US equities from foreigners because you have to think about even If foreigners begin to

sell, it doesn't matter if the Fed cuts rates. The actions that will force

rates. The actions that will force foreigners to buy or sell equities are not always connected to the Fed's actions. And then obviously you also

actions. And then obviously you also have in the quantity of money in the system, corporate issuance, buybacks, and things along those lines. So those

were all the things that you would want to know to break down liquidity. And

I've written educational primers on the Substack about that. You can go through all of that. What I want to do is nail down where are we exactly? Because if we went through every single line item of

these, then that would begin to take a while. And I mean, that's what I do on

while. And I mean, that's what I do on the Substack every single week. But what

I want to do is really nail down where are we in the cycle right now. And this

chart is where I want to start. In

orange, you will see on the left hand side, and let me make sure that you guys are able to see this. Yep. Perfect. So

in the lefth hand side here you can see this is inflation swaps right here which are pricing inflation expectations.

And as we came into the COVID and the lockdowns and that whole period of time we had deflation which was you know the

amount of growth and inflation in the economy was negative. Very rare actually overall doesn't happen super often. And

then as we came out and the, you know, the federal government and the Federal Reserve threw the kitchen sink at everything, they began to see

inflation expectations rise. Now, here's

the thing. Inflation expectations, that is the amount of money in the underlying economy beginning to expand. You know,

inflation in itself is just nominal demand versus real output. So nominal

demand is the income that you and I have versus what are all the real goods and services or the real stuff in the world, right? And so if we collectively make

right? And so if we collectively make $10 million, how much or how many cars are on the lot or, you know, houses or whatever that

might be are out there that that $10 million can buy. If there's a ton of them, you know, if there's, you know, 10 million houses out there and 10 million cars and there's only $10 million of

demand, then all of those might go for, you know, a$1.50 or something like that.

But when you have less of that, uh, a smaller supply and a larger amount of nominal demand, that begins to increase or, you know, a smaller amount of that

that begins to create inflation. And so,

as we moved out of the COVID period, you began to have inflation expectations.

And this really set the precedent for the amount of money that we have in the system today because you had inflation going up and the Fed is typically supposed to increase interest rates as

inflation goes up. But they didn't and they allowed real interest rates to go negative. This just means that the

negative. This just means that the greatest incentive that everyone had was to take out a ton of debt and go spend it because financing and debt and the

price of money was negative in real terms. And so it was one of the greatest opportunities really in history to be able to take out debt and go take risk.

As we came into 2022, we began to see inflation push up too much and you began to see the Fed flip and increase interest rates. And that

was when we began to see the hiking cycle.

That period of time was very significant because you began to see the Fed bring shortend interest rates above inflation

expectations. And that is really the

expectations. And that is really the turning point that we began to see as we moved into 2023 because when you have interest rates

above inflation expectations right here that shifts how macro liquidity functions in the system. It means that

the real price of money is now positive not only in the returns that investors can give or can get but also this puts a

downward pressure on growth because you have to borrow money and it's more expensive than it was previously and it's more expensive than the changes in

the underlying economy and that's why we have actually seen a normalization in growth. We've seen the labor market

growth. We've seen the labor market soften since 2023.

And the reason why is because the Fed has held real interest rates above or, you know, at an elevated level and held nominal interest rates above inflation

expectations. So, we're in this period

expectations. So, we're in this period of time where the Fed is holding rates at an elevated level above inflation expectations.

And the question now is how is that going to impact liquidity on a short-term basis? And that's where I

short-term basis? And that's where I really want to zoom in right here in the chart right here. This is

basically the same chart zoomed in. You

have the 2-year interest rate in white right here. And then you have inflation

right here. And then you have inflation expectations right here. Now, you will notice that you have the changes in

inflation expectations have moved up from the beginning of the cutting cycle.

So, in September of 2024, the Fed began to cut rates. When the Fed began to cut rates, they began to actually push inflation expectations up and they moved

all the way to this period of time right here earlier this year where you had all the tariff risk and everything else and that began to set a high in inflation expectations and we have seen a move

down since then. Now, here's the reason why we have seen a bit of a sell-off in risk assets and how this is connected to the macro liquidity environment today.

When you have this fall in inflation expectations and you have, you know, two-year nominal rates remain, you know, fairly flat over the last couple months,

that begins to cause real interest rates to rise right here. When you have real interest rates rising, that begins to contract the amount of

liquidity in the system. And one of the reasons why if you've been following my work since you know April and May when I talked about the credit cycle and

liquidity cycle the main idea that I was laying out is that we are seeing an upward move in the credit cycle and liquidity cycle that

pushed is pushing risk assets up. It's

why we had the rally in gold. It's why

we had the rally in risk assets. The

underlying AI changes also amplified that. But really, when you have a fall

that. But really, when you have a fall in real interest rates and credit spreads falling at the same time, that's a massive liquidity impulse. And so

that's why if you're thinking about equities or trading equities, trading Nvidia, trading Tesla, trading gold, trading silver, or even just having an allocation to those things, which I'm

going to cover in a little bit, uh especially on a long-term perspective, that's going to be very interesting.

real interest rates and the changes in interest rates right here are the quantification of liquidity in the system. Right? So you know at the end of

system. Right? So you know at the end of the day if you have a good understanding of interest rates and the changes in real interest rates especially you are

going to have a very informed view about macro liquidity. There's some

macro liquidity. There's some qualifications for that and some other things that you really want to you know dig into but you know interest rates really set the price of money in the

system and you know the money in the system and interest rates are two sides to the same coin. So it's functionally impossible to have a view about liquidity and money or people saying money is broken. You can't even have a

view about money without having a view about interest rates because those are both, you know, intricately linked, right? That is changing the supply and

right? That is changing the supply and demand of money in the system. Interest

rates are doing that. And so when real interest rates are rising, that contracts the amount of money in the system. Now, this is really where we

system. Now, this is really where we begin to change or to take these two ideas of interest rates and the quantity of money in the system and begin to

merge them together. And you'll notice that during this period of time right here in 2021, real interest rates were moving negative. So, that's a positive

moving negative. So, that's a positive liquidity impulse, right? The Fed is holding interest rates at that lower bounds and inflation is accelerating which pushes more money in the system.

Capital moves out the risk. That's for

interest rates. But the additional factor that we had that was adding liquidity to the system was the fact that we had the Fed expanding their

balance sheet not only during COVID but even after COVID for a very prolonged period of time. This increases the quantity of money in the system, right?

And so if you just kind of think about it like this, if you held all interest rates constant and the only thing that you increased or decreased was the central bank balance sheet, that would

begin to have an impact on asset prices or FX and that would be the primary driver behind them. Again, there's some qualifications behind that and nothing is, you know, held static, but that just kind of gives you an idea about how that

functions exactly. Now, a lot of people

functions exactly. Now, a lot of people have talked about the upside in things like crypto or Bitcoin and things like that as we had 2020 and 2021,

which also, by the way, over overlapped with the lockdown period, which was really massive. People don't get how

really massive. People don't get how significant that was in terms of spending. I mean, if you just think

spending. I mean, if you just think about it, if you got a stimulus check and you have the option or the only option you have is to throw it in your Robin Hood account or buy durable goods,

right? You're going to go do that. But

right? You're going to go do that. But

now, you know, post that people have the option to go out and spend money and that's why we have all of this spending in services. So, you know, that's a

in services. So, you know, that's a really key point. So, when we came into this period of time in 2023, we began to

see the Fed run off their balance sheet.

But you will notice that even though the Fed is running off their balance sheet, real interest rates are dropping. So

even though that they're depositive on a long-term basis, real interest rates are beginning to fall as the Fed begins the initiation of

the cutting cycle. So the quantity of money in the system is dropping, but the price of money, interest rates on a real basis are also falling and that's one of

the reasons why we have seen a rally in risk assets and specifically a valuation expansion in risk assets since 2023.

And so the other driver that is directly linked to this are the changes in crossber flows. You will see in the

crossber flows. You will see in the chart here you have foreign direct investment in the US which just means if you kind of aggregate all together all

the foreigners that are buying US assets that's what this chart represents and you can see that the buying pressure

from foreigners has been increasing so much over the last couple years and one of the reasons for that is that the US has been running a current account

deficit, which means we're importing more than we're exporting. When the US imports goods and services from another country, they then give that country

dollars and that country then takes those dollars and on net after everything is balanced out, they'll take those and invest them in US treasuries,

US equities or things along those lines.

That's why earlier this year when we had the sell off in equities during the tariff kind of scare the dollar actually sold off because foreigners actually had

to pull out capital in case something actually happened. And so we are in a

actually happened. And so we are in a period where crossber flows are a massive deal that is occurring whoops

that is occurring as we have this massive divergence in the S&P 500 yield versus the 10-year yield. In this chart,

you can see that you have the 10-year Treasury yield in blue and then you have

the S&P 500 earnings yield in white. And

the reason I watch this chart very carefully is because you can see that investors right now are getting paid 3.7% to hold the S&P 500 on a yield

basis right?

investors are getting paid you know 4.03% 03% to hold you know US treasuries and you know obviously you have you know

not just the returns of the S&P 500 reflected in the yield but you can see that there is a large spread compared to

2022 where you have the S&P 500 offering a much lower yield and that's because you have equity valuations at highs

right now and that directly links to the changes in real interest rates and nominal interest rates. Now, how does all of that connect to what we were

seeing with Bitcoin equities, credit spreads, and things like that? So, the

chart that is the real key takeaway here is that in white you have two-year in real interest rates that have been dropping. And then in blue you have

dropping. And then in blue you have credit spreads also dropping which means that growth it remains positive in the

economy. And then in green you have the

economy. And then in green you have the price of Bitcoin inverted. So you have you know when the green line's going down I inverted that. So it's actually Bitcoin going up just to kind of show

you and illustrate the point that over the last three years we have seen the price of Bitcoin rally because there's been a lot of liquidity

in the system. Why? Because real

interest rates have been dropping and you also have those real interest rates and the changes in growth be pretty significant and positive for the overall

system. That's why you have credit

system. That's why you have credit spreads at cycle lows right now. We've

ticked up a little bit, but broadly speaking, credit spreads remain very low. And when credit spreads are moving

low. And when credit spreads are moving down, that's an indication that growth remains positive in the US economy. So

when you have real interest rates fall and you have growth remain positive, that causes capital to move out the risk

curve on a systematic basis. And that

really brings us to okay, how do we connect that to Bitcoin and the period of time that we are in right now. Here

is just a basic Trading View script that shows in green when Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P 500 and in red when it is underperforming the S&P 500.

And you will note that the periods of time where it's outperforming, one of the major drivers during that time is when you have real

interest rates dropping, capital moving out the risk curve. And the most recent change where Bitcoin is underperforming the S&P and falling is when real interest rates are rising. You'll notice

here in the chart just before in white right here, you have real interest rates beginning to push higher as credit spreads move up as well. And Bitcoin is

kind of over extrapolating that right now because Bitcoin fundamentally is a risk asset. That's what the price of

risk asset. That's what the price of Bitcoin is telling everyone that it's a risk asset. And so you have Bitcoin

risk asset. And so you have Bitcoin underperforming because real interest rates are rising. And that's why that's the reason behind the pullback. If uh by the way, if anyone wants this script,

it's on the Substack for free if you just go on the main page, go into the educational primer section, scroll down, there's an entire primer on Bitcoin, and then there's also this trading view

script you can download as well. I'll

cover that uh at the end as well. If you

guys want that, I'll go through the instructions. Okay, so for Bitcoin, the

instructions. Okay, so for Bitcoin, the key chart that you want to be watching is the fact that you have all of the most shorted stocks for the United

States actually moving in lock step with Bitcoin and the Bitcoin Treasury companies or Bitcoin proxies. So here in

the chart you have in white the Goldman Sachs most shorted rolling basket which just says you know what are all the stocks that people want to be short.

They're probably not doing that great.

They're probably overleveraged. Their

prospects look very grim. What are all of those? Let's aggregate them together

of those? Let's aggregate them together and let's look at them. And you know you'll notice that a lot of these stocks have squeezed over the last six months

from May to September. Why? because of

the credit cycle I've been laying out.

When you have money flow into the system, that begins to cause a lot of money to move out the risk curve and squeeze positioning in a lot of these

lowflat stocks. And then you what you

lowflat stocks. And then you what you began to see is Bitcoin underperforming the index and then all of these Bitcoin proxy plays underperform Bitcoin, which

is why Micro Strategy has kind of led the way to the downside. If you want just a telltale sign, you know, and the strategy that I run for Bitcoin and

trading Bitcoin is very, you know, very connected to the relative performance between these things. Just saying why would I want to buy Bitcoin or run longs

or be leverage long Bitcoin if it's underperforming the S&P 500, right? And

especially on a VA adjusted basis because when you have access to leverage and capital, right, you can just leverage up on the S&P 500 and get the same returns. Now, it's important to

same returns. Now, it's important to understand how that connects to a longerterm mindset and connects to volatility. But, you know, when you have

volatility. But, you know, when you have a draw down like this in Bitcoin, that's a very important draw down to understand because let's, you know, it doesn't really matter where you're at in your

journey for Bitcoin or for gold or for whatever risk asset that might be. If

you have the ability to establish a cost basis and buy Bitcoin when it's at, you know, $88,000 versus, you know,

$120,000, that's a big difference, right? Especially now that you don't

right? Especially now that you don't have the early adopters kind of edge where you can buy, you know, a couple hundred Bitcoin at, you know, five bucks, right? Or something like that,

bucks, right? Or something like that, right? The average person could do that.

right? The average person could do that.

So the place that I want to take us is how do we connect this macro liquidity cycle that we're in with these changes

in Bitcoin and changes also I want to talk about gold and how would I think about managing the risk around them as we move into the next couple years. So

here is a chart of Bitcoin and you can see the drawdowns that we have had. One

of the biggest challenges for Bitcoin and I mean this for anyone who is interested in for in an institutional basis an RAIA you're thinking about hey am I going to put clients money into

this am I going to manage risk in this way you know even the changes where we saw Bitcoin be in a bare market for you know several years in you know 2022 and

2023 and that is real key to understand because If you can limit the draw down, you can be able to have

more exposure to Bitcoin, right? Like

that's the key for it. And then also for you know the other kind of flip side of liquidity, we have gold which has had less draw downs, less extreme draw downs

and it's been trending up to the right more recently but the returns aren't as large as Bitcoin. Right? And so this brings us to the, you know, really

important breakdown that I want to share and that's one of the ideas behind my long-term Bitcoin strategy. And that is

this chart right here. This is in blue the different options that you can have or you know in this chart is the different options that you could have

for getting exposure to Bitcoin and also gold. You know, my view is that yes, you

gold. You know, my view is that yes, you can buy Bitcoin alone, you can also just buy gold on its own, but if you buy both and you're able to rebalance a little

bit, especially strategically, that's going to give you a much smoother return profile as you move forward and it's going to be a lot better in my view

because it gives you optionality. So in

the chart you can see the blue you have just the set it and forget it Bitcoin and gold 50/50 and it just is moving up

like this and you start with a $10,000 allocation in you know around 2018. I

put 2018 as opposed to inception because when we think about the returns of Bitcoin they are changing dramatically

from the period in you know 2017 to kind of 2018 and that whole period right it's getting a lot more integrated with flows and correlations and things like that

and then also you really need to think about the return profile of Bitcoin over the last two years as around there the type of expectations you should have for returns as opposed to thinking, you

know, the, you know, Bitcoin price is going to 100x from here, right? So, you

have in blue the set it and forget it option. You have in orange the monthly

option. You have in orange the monthly rebalance. So, if you buy Bitcoin and

rebalance. So, if you buy Bitcoin and gold 5050 and then you rebalance it every single month, that is the chart that you actually get. And you'll notice

that actually right now if you would have bought gold and Bitcoin and just rebalanced every month, you would be in less of a draw down right now than just

owning Bitcoin alone, right? You have a very, you know, very similar return profile. You underperform on some of

profile. You underperform on some of these meltups right here, but then when you have these moves down, you are outperforming pretty significantly. And

then the one that I specifically, you know, how I view gold and Bitcoin is having a trend component to your rebalancing. So if you just think about

rebalancing. So if you just think about rebalancing a portfolio, if you buy, you know, like let's say your very typical,

you know, 6040 stock bond portfolio. If

stocks go down, then you begin to add more to stocks, sell some bonds, buy some stocks. Well, that's great. if

some stocks. Well, that's great. if

stocks kind of dip and then go right back up, but if they keep going down and you keep buying all the way down, you're going to increase your draw down. And

so, you know, a lot of just very basic models in the industry, if you just go to, you know, some books like strategic risk management and you look at what, you know, dynamic rebalancing is is it

just says let's use a bit of a trend component for our rebalancing so that we are not increasing what's called a negative convexity. We're not adding to

negative convexity. We're not adding to our loser. We're waiting until it

our loser. We're waiting until it becomes a little bit more of a winner and then we begin to add to it. And that

actually helps us reduce volatility. And

then on the other side, the way that I think about gold and Bitcoin is that I don't want to just have, let's say I have $100,000. I don't want to put

have $100,000. I don't want to put $50,000 in Bitcoin and $50,000 in gold.

I actually want to be able to use some leverage and be able to have exposure so that the return contribution is comparable. So you know on a regular day

comparable. So you know on a regular day basis Bitcoin might move anywhere between let's say two and 5% or two and

4% or something like that gold usually you know somewhere between you know one and two so it's smaller I would want to have more exposure to gold right on a a

V adjusted basis to be able to balance out that return contribution and so basically the trend strategy that I've kind of put here pulls together that it takes out some of that negative

convexity and it says, "Okay, I want to hold gold and Bitcoin. I want to vol adjust that so that I have an equal contribution in my P&L. I can use a little bit of leverage. And then I also

want to be able to have, you know, the upside without some of the significant downside. And I want to adjust that over

downside. And I want to adjust that over time." And you can see that in this

time." And you can see that in this green line right here, especially during 2022. Yeah, we're flat, but you're not

2022. Yeah, we're flat, but you're not having a massive draw down like you had in Bitcoin. And here's just a chart of

in Bitcoin. And here's just a chart of the draw down profile that you have for that period of time where you have this you know kind of portfolio of gold and

bitcoin have some trend have some you know management in there and you adjust that on a weekly or monthly basis whatever you might want to do and you

have that have less of a drawdown than owning just Bitcoin and you have actually pretty comparable returns on an overall basis when you just look at the

three-month rolling sharp, you have a really great setup, right? You actually

have right now, if you were holding gold and Bitcoin and managing your trend and momentum and things like that, you're actually positive right now in terms of

your rolling three-month sharp. Whereas

basically every other asset besides, you know, gold, which is already at high still, you actually have the set it and forget it or the Bitcoin itself or the monthly rebalance, they're all down

right now because Bitcoin has pulled back so much, right? And then if you just look at also the

rolling uh returns, you can see that, you know, we have the changes in each of these strategies.

you have in green the green BART. it

still has a really really good expectation about positive returns on the upside and then less on the downside

which if you're thinking about if you're thinking about adding money to any type of portfolio or strategy on a monthly basis and I say okay I want to hold gold and Bitcoin and then when we

go through some of these macro liquidity cycles and we have a bit of a draw down in the strategy I'm going to add to it and add more money out of my cash balances to that. Well, if you have less

of a V drawd down, then you're able to actually compound at a higher base and add when you're in a dip as opposed to,

you know, always taking volatility against you and having a draw down and decreasing your future returns. And so

the the real takeaway here that I just wanted to share that you know people are aware of is that you know when you think about all of these different changes on

a macro basis and you begin to stack these different changes and stack the edges that exist, you can begin to understand, okay, we're in a liquidity

cycle right now. We're still in a credit cycle where you have money getting issued into the underlying system. It's

less strong than it was three months ago. Real rates have risen, which has

ago. Real rates have risen, which has pulled Bitcoin back. And it's helped everyone realize, oh wait, maybe I don't want to just be all in on Bitcoin. I

might want to have some gold. And that

actually allows me to have higher returns because I'm able to manage my rebalances and correlations and trends of these different assets, decrease the

volatility I have, increase the upside and manage those risks in very very simple ways. And nothing, you know, with

simple ways. And nothing, you know, with this stuff is just like rocket science.

And so, you know, all of these different types of basic tactical asset allocation strategies or dynamic rebalance strategies like all of these are very

well documented and available to, you know, really anyone who is able to actively manage a portfolio. And so when we think about pulling those things

together, the chart that I kind of want to end with for this specific section is

on the 2-year yield, Bitcoin, and then also in uh blue right here, you have the Goldman Sachs mega cap tech versus nonprofitable tech. And let me explain

nonprofitable tech. And let me explain this chart to you because it really begins to paint a picture about what Bitcoin is.

when you have the, you know, price of Bitcoin moving up, right? It's inverted

in the chart. So, when it's moving down, it's has positive returns. It's

rallying. And then you also have the 2-year yield real yield moving down.

That's increasing the amount of liquidity in the system. That's why the Goldman Sachs mega cap tech index versus nonprofitable tech underperforms. So,

when you have this blue line moving down, it means that people are taking more money and putting it into nonprofitable tech. Think about the ARC

nonprofitable tech. Think about the ARC ETF. They're taking it from Mag 7 and

ETF. They're taking it from Mag 7 and putting it into nonprofitable tech names because they think there's going to be a higher return. Why would they do that?

higher return. Why would they do that?

Because they have more money in the system. And so that's why we actually

system. And so that's why we actually see Bitcoin correlate to these different types of factor moves that exist and that are taking place. And so when we have these changes like this that

continue to occur on a systematic basis, what are they all linked to? They're

primarily linked to macro liquidity, which is directly linked to what?

Interest rates. And so understanding those changes in interest rates, making sure you're on the right side of the macro regime is one of the most important things, if not the most

important thing that you can be able to have because when you have these other strategies that break down, okay, here's how I want my exposure and you have these basic tools for putting up

exposure, taking down exposure on a long-term basis, then all you need to do is make sure, okay, let me make sure I'm on the right side of the macro regime. I

know the directionality. I know when to be less aggressive or more aggressive.

And then let me just manage my risk accordingly and I'm actually able to outperform. That's the idea. And this is

outperform. That's the idea. And this is not even about active trading versus investing or anything like that. All you

have to do is adjust the strategy that you have or the view that you have of the future for the time frame that you're on. And so that's really the key

you're on. And so that's really the key thing and that's why I'm laying out all the research on capitalflows research.com. You can find all the

research.com. You can find all the educational primers there. And that

really begins to break down all of the different credit cycle playbooks, the Bitcoin playbook, you can find the Bitcoin indicator right here. If you

just go to capitalflowsarchearch.com, it's in this main section right here.

You click on this and you can scroll down to these two sections right here and it will break all of it down for you. And then obviously all of the

you. And then obviously all of the research on interest rate strategy, equity strategy that I'm publishing from all of the different things that I'm

putting out there on the Capital Flows Research website. So, with that being

Research website. So, with that being said, I want to shift over to Trading View, cover a couple more charts after the price action that we have seen

today, and then begin to break down how I'm thinking about price action as we move into the end of this week. So, give

me one moment. I'm going to pull this up.

Let's get this right here.

All right. And then again, if you guys have any questions or if you guys are able to retweet this spaces and share the work that I'm putting out, I always appreciate that. Always means a lot. Um,

appreciate that. Always means a lot. Um,

so if you guys have any questions, you can throw them in the comment section.

And then if you have uh any uh additional things that you'd like to go over, please feel free to put them there and I will cover them. And then I always appreciate if you guys are able to

retweet reshare the spaces and everything like that. All right.

So let's connect all these macro liquidity views to where we're at in price because that's the key thing to do. The the move that we have seen over

do. The the move that we have seen over the last year contextualizes where we are likely to go. this draw down. I

would just say understanding why this draw down took place in the S&P 500 is one of the most important things you can understand over the next decade. Why?

Because that drawdown that selling pressure was driven because of crossber

flows. when you have the DXY selling off

flows. when you have the DXY selling off and then you also have the S&P 500 selling off and that shift

that is an indication or one of the main indications that foreigners are selling their equity exposure right and that was really connected to the tariff situation that

we saw take place right now we have seen a bit of a shift and we're consolidating in the dollar right here but ever since

we began to move out of the March and April lows. This whole period of time, we began to see commercial banks issue a lot more debt into the

system and we began to see procyclical monetary policy, procyclical fiscal policy and that's what pushed real interest rates down. Now we are coming to a period where there's a bit more

normalization, right? You had this move

normalization, right? You had this move down driven by some of the tariff news and positioning unwind and you had a move up back up to all-time highs and then this high was set at the FOMC

meeting. So, one of the reasons why that

meeting. So, one of the reasons why that is taking place is because Powell is pushing back on where the terminal rate is going to be. That's why everyone is so interested about where the or who the

next chair is going to be because right now we don't have really a lot of cuts priced on the forward curve, right? It's

really not that many, especially over the last, you know, month. We've priced

a lot less cuts on the forward curve.

So, if you have someone come out, it would be very easy for ZT and two-year interest rates to begin to move down.

That is one of the reasons why, you know, we kind of were flushing out some of that positioning in this pullback, right? And that's probably why you were

right? And that's probably why you were beginning to see, you know, this the beginning of some type of equity bid over the last two days. Now, the

question is, will this maintain and begin to move back up to all-time highs, or is it going to begin to get selling pressure right here at this level and

move back down? So, the answer for that is really going to be connected to real interest rates. And I laid out some of

interest rates. And I laid out some of that on the Substack recently for paid subscribers. And I'll be laying out more

subscribers. And I'll be laying out more of that as we move forward for paid subscribers on the Substack. But the key thing I would be connecting for bonds right here is the fact that we're likely

to see a bit higher of a ZT price and ZN price as we price more cuts on the forward curve. When you have that take

forward curve. When you have that take place, that's why you actually are seeing gold up on the day. That's why

you're seeing silver up on the day because you're having real interest rates especially 10ear real interest rates today come down a little bit more cuts priced in the forward curve and

markets know that there's this expectation that we could actually price a lot more next year and you know when you have inflation risk drop so aggressively you know I'm just going to

pull up a chart really fast and and share it with you because I you know I can't tell you how important this is for understanding where we are on a macro

basis. The

basis. The 2-year inflation swap chart. And I think you can see if I can pull this. Hang.

All right. The 2-year inflation swap chart has been a really critical inflection point in the macro picture.

And I'll explain why. when you have inflation risk moving so high and being at this top end of the range, especially right here, you know, in 2021 and 2022, but when you

have inflation risk up here, there begins to be a lot of difficulty for the Fed to cut. When you begin to have inflation expectations move down and all we need is one CPI print to come in

below expectations, you have a lot more room for the Fed to cut because inflation risk becomes less of an issue. And if the Fed gets the

opportunity to cut rates because they think inflation is not an issue so that they can support labor, you better believe that they're going to do that right away because they have shifted

their mandate and that especially post Jackson Hole that they want to overemphasize labor as opposed to inflation because of the balance of

risks shifting. So this is really a key

risks shifting. So this is really a key thing to be aware of. And so as we move through the next couple of months and we

move into the end of the year, two-year real interest rates and 10-year real interest rates and the the stance of the Fed versus inflation will determine if we begin to make a rally back up here,

especially in the S&P 500 and also Bitcoin, or we'll begin to move back lower. And the outperformance especially

lower. And the outperformance especially of Bitcoin on a volatility adjusted basis and outperforming ES will be one of the most critical things to watch as

well as the connection to all of the changes that we are seeing in the positioning side which is the chart that I shared previously. I'm just going to

pull it up for you really fast so you can see it. And if you know, I posted this on Twitter earlier as well, but you know, you want to watch the positioning

of the most shorted basket for Goldman or any most shorted stocks in the in the environment that we're in because those

are really the same stocks that every other macro manager is trading, every equity long short fund is trading and people have to put up and take down

positioning side positioning together.

So that is really key and I want to go through a couple more or a couple of questions from people. Let me go through one moment.

Just going to put this right here.

All right.

How do you see Bitcoin versus Hyperlid?

So I think that you know feel like Hyperlick will outperform. My view is that Hyperlid will probably outperform Bitcoin over the next two to three years

because I think the upside that exists is significantly greater than it is for Bitcoin. Um I think that it's going to

Bitcoin. Um I think that it's going to be tough for Hyperlid to rally if Bitcoin's falling just because that's crypto in general. But if for anyone that doesn't know, Hyperlid is kind of

this decentralized exchange that allows you to trade perpetuals with a ton of leverage. And

um it's a pretty unique product and if they begin to diversify away from crypto products and put on more products like the NASDAQ or interest rates or things like that, that will fundamentally

change the game. That is what would cause a bid. And so, you know, in my view, you know, I own Hyperliquid and you know, my view is that it's probably going to go a lot higher from here. So,

that's my view. All right. Um, what do you think about the liquidity FUD about repo rates and the Japanese carry trade receding? I think that the majority of

receding? I think that the majority of views that I have seen about repo rates and the yen carry trade are fairly

uninformed and don't really understand what is taking place at any point in time. One, on the repo side, I think all

time. One, on the repo side, I think all that stuff is noise and it's actually not right analysis. But on the carry trade for the yen, now that's something I watch every single day.

uh because it's one of the key inputs into my models. Um every carry trade is and the the carry trade is not,

you know, doesn't just blow up because, you know, 10-year JGBs are actually rallying. I just did a report on this

rallying. I just did a report on this explaining that that's not really how it works. And so, you know, that's not

works. And so, you know, that's not really my view. I think that what you would want to do for a carry trade, you know, breakdown and kind of understanding is saying, okay, when the

yen is rallying, when JJBs are rallying, when the nicke is falling, and V is blowing out on all of those, right? So,

think about like uh you know, put skew on the nic call skew on the yen, call skew on JGBs. You can look at all of that on the SE ball tool for the CME.

When all that's happening at the same time, that's probably when your carry trade's blown up. None of that's happening right now.

All right, let's see.

Would you make the claim that treasury companies are better than the coin itself given the real asset combo with financial assets? So, I think about

financial assets? So, I think about financial or excuse me, treasury companies as if they don't dilute their stock or on net, they don't, you know, I

I don't think well, let me let me start with this. I don't think that there's

with this. I don't think that there's this play where treasury companies offer access. Let's just talk about Bitcoin. I

access. Let's just talk about Bitcoin. I

don't think the Bitcoin treasury companies offer access after we have an ETF because you can buy spot Bitcoin at a spot ETF, right? Okay. So, you have to begin to say, well, then why in the world would they have these treasury

companies? Well, some of them have

companies? Well, some of them have Bitcoin mining operations so that they can actually have a return expectation beyond just the underlying Bitcoin.

The other way is if they take leverage risk by not diluting the actual equity holders that they have. So if they actually manage risk and take on risk

correctly, then on net they can create a higher expected return because you have to think about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a response to macro liquidity expanding.

Well, if you have leverage, you functionally have the same I mean besides the immutability and all that stuff, right? that like besides

stuff, right? that like besides underlying protocol and holding, you know, kind of this token that is permissionless and all this other stuff, but just the effect of it hedging your portfolio. The same thing happens with

portfolio. The same thing happens with leverage, right? So, if you have

leverage, right? So, if you have leverage that you're able to manage and have exposure to things, then it is, you

know, in many ways functionally the same net effect of having Bitcoin. So if you have you know a treasury company using leverage such as Micro Strategy and they do that well which again the market has

said they haven't over the last you know 3 4 months um especially when you think about cost basis and everything else but you know the market has said yeah probably not a great job at that but

that could change right if you begin to see the expected returns and returns that the treasury company itself is providing and I would not put it past

Michael Sailor to do that so we shall see. All right, let's see.

see. All right, let's see.

All right, any other final questions? I

want to I want to pull this visual I shared earlier and you know kind of explain that as I go through these final questions. Um,

and I'll go through this one. How do you think it's possible? How possible do you think it is for widespread per trading for equities um and real world assets?

And will the default expression be via hyperlquid? I don't know if it would be

hyperlquid? I don't know if it would be via hyperlquid, but and I actually don't know about real world assets because you need the tokenization

um laws in the United States to change.

So if that changes in the United States, biggest unlock in US history probably for crypto.

Um for the per side, I mean pers are not meant to be equity, right? They're meant

to be something that you use to express it. So I think that and again maybe

it. So I think that and again maybe someone has a more nuanced view on that than I do but just at the end of the day right it's a perk right you're using leverage so it's mainly for exposure

asset management liquidity provision and things like that um as opposed to like some type of private equity portfolio u so I think that it is possible but I

don't think that crypto would be the only avenue I think you need more tokenization laws or securitization laws changing for for that to begin to take place. That's my view. If you see here's

place. That's my view. If you see here's here's one of the things I would say. If

you see any news coming out about tokenization laws changing and like actual tokenization laws changing, not like this, you know, political rhetoric that people like

throw around. If you see those take

throw around. If you see those take place, that is like that could cause the crypto market, Bitcoin, everything else to gap up an insane amount. Like that's

the biggest unlock because right now the reason why you can't tokenize things, right? If you're a US citizen, right,

right? If you're a US citizen, right, and you want to create some type of security is because you'll go to jail, right? Or you you get into some major

right? Or you you get into some major trouble. So if that changes, that would

trouble. So if that changes, that would be a huge uh you know, financialization unlock.

All right. Can you talk more about crossber flows? Um that that those are

crossber flows? Um that that those are very important right now. Yeah. So, if

you you can go back and listen to that and kind of see the the views that I've been laid out, but if you go on the Substack and go to the macro report section, um, and then also if you go on

to the YouTube channel and go to the geopolitical video that I did, I think it's maybe a month ago now. Um,

actually, if you're on YouTube right now, it's in the description. I posted

it there. So in the YouTube channel, it's in the description and it'll it'll go over that for you and that'll expl

explain all the crosswater flows. Um,

the main thing that I will be covering as we move into tomorrow is I will be publishing a special report for paid

subscribers that breaks down a lot of these opportunities that I'm seeing in the Bitcoin space, the crypto space, and then also specifically some single name

equities and how that connects to the macro regime that we're in, especially on a factor basis, right? because that

is one of the biggest opportunities that exists right now given the draw downs that we see managing the risk is really the differentiator for that. So if you uh want to go in the substack all the

educational primers are free and then you can obviously become paid subscriber and get all the research that maps and synthesizes all these moving parts in real time. As you know we kind of come

real time. As you know we kind of come to this you know final point right here.

I want to share this you know breakdown and I shared this on Twitter. I'd

encourage you to save this because Bitcoin acts as a macro liquidity release valve. Rising when the quantity

release valve. Rising when the quantity of money increases and falling when liquidity contracts. Just remember that

liquidity contracts. Just remember that there's no rule that says liquidity can't contract or go off a cliff for three or four months or a year. There's

no rule that says it can't do that.

That's why we had the bare market in 2022 for Bitcoin, right? So, when people just are always moving the goalpost and just saying Bitcoin only goes up, right?

Like that's not a great view to have, right? like you want to be able to be,

right? like you want to be able to be, you know, prepared even if a, you know, draw down does come and you don't want to sell because of tax purposes or whatever else it might be. Just being

aware is really key. So that's one. It

responds to real interest rates becoming more attractive when real interest rates fall and less attractive when real interest rates rise. You can go and find the entire

Bitcoin primer on the Substack in the main page as well. If you just go on the main page

as well. If you just go on the main page of the substack capital flows research.com, click on the main educational primer section, there's a whole Bitcoin primer. It moves furthest

when macro liquidity expands because excess capital flows outward along the risk curve until it reaches Bitcoin. It

carries an equity-like risk premium.

This is why it correlates with equities.

While gold is driven by a geopolitical and crossborder premium that's why gold rallied when everything sold off earlier this year, right? Like Bitcoin didn't do that. That's Bitcoin telling you

that. That's Bitcoin telling you something about itself, right? Like one

of the things that I said previously earlier today was that if you really believe in Bitcoin, then you should only you should listen to Bitcoin and what Bitcoin says about itself, not what other people say about Bitcoin, right?

Like everyone has their narrative about what they think Bitcoin is. What does

Bitcoin say that it is, right? Just

based on the price, what would Bitcoin tell you that it is based on how it behaves? And when you go through how it

behaves? And when you go through how it behaves, it is an equity-like risk premium, which is totally fine. It's

supposed to be that. Gold has more of a geopolitical and crossber premium which is why Bitcoin behaves like a high beta macro asset rather than a safe or a

traditional safe haven asset. Right? And

that is the key. So those are all the main ideas that I wanted to cover. I'll

be covering more on the Substack as we move into tomorrow and I'll be doing a report that really expands on these different factors a lot more. So you can find all of that on there. It's

capitalflows research.com. you guys know where all the links are. And then uh if you guys also want to subscribe to the YouTube channel, I'll still be, you know, putting a lot of stuff up there.

And if you guys uh ever want to, you know, just support the work that I'm doing, you guys can share it with whoever you think, uh, you know, would benefit from it. I always appreciate it.

That's always super helpful. And with

that, I will catch you guys later.

Thanks for joining the stream.